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Heading into the Holiday Slowdown after an Interesting Autumn Market

Median sales prices in October and November jumped back up to levels similar to the spring peak selling season. It’s important to remember that median prices are not a perfect reflection of changes in fair market value: They often fluctuate due to seasonal inventory and buyer-profile trends, as well as issues such as an influx…

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New Case-Shiller Home Price Index Report

This chart gives an exceedingly clear illustration of the seasonality of home price appreciation over the past 4 years. Summer/autumn plateau in 2015? It’s happened to a large degree every year since 2012. We won’t really know where the market is headed next until we see what happens in early spring 2016. (Barring some large,…

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San Francisco New-Home Construction

The SF Planning Department just released updated Q3 information regarding the new-housing development pipeline. San Francisco is in the midst of one of its biggest new-housing construction booms in history. (The same is occurring on the commercial development side, but this report won’t deal with that.) Indeed, it often seems that new projects of one…

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Interest Rates & Affordability

Interest rates have ticked up a little bit and are now just below 4%. The Q3 CAR Affordability Index just came out: Q2 to Q3, San Francisco remained the same, at a very low 10% Index reading; Marin ticked up from 17% to 19%; Sonoma went down from 25% to 24%; and Central Contra Costa…

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Newly Released Case-Shiller Index

The new S&P Case-Shiller Index for August was just released this week. The prices for homes in the upper third of prices – which dominate in most of San Francisco, central and southern Marin, and central Contra Costa – ticked down a tiny bit in summer, exactly as they did last summer. These short-term fluctuations…

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San Francisco Bay Area Housing Affordability

The California Association of Realtors just released its Housing Affordability Index (HAI) for the 2nd quarter of 2015. All Bay Area counties saw declines in their affordability index reading – which measures the percentage of households that can afford to buy the median priced single family dwelling (house) – and San Francisco is now only…

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Home Sales by San Francisco District and Price

These charts show the breakdown of San Francisco home sales as reported to the city’s Multiple Listing Service, year to date 2015. We picked this period because, generally speaking prices appreciated again in late winter/ early spring 2015. These analyses are sorted by city districts and neighborhoods by the number of transactions in different sales-price…

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