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Median sales prices in October and November jumped back up to levels similar to the spring peak selling season. It’s important to remember that median prices are not a perfect reflection of changes in fair market value: They often fluctuate due to seasonal inventory and buyer-profile trends, as well as issues such as an influx…
This chart gives an exceedingly clear illustration of the seasonality of home price appreciation over the past 4 years. Summer/autumn plateau in 2015? It’s happened to a large degree every year since 2012. We won’t really know where the market is headed next until we see what happens in early spring 2016. (Barring some large,…
The SF Planning Department just released updated Q3 information regarding the new-housing development pipeline. San Francisco is in the midst of one of its biggest new-housing construction booms in history. (The same is occurring on the commercial development side, but this report won’t deal with that.) Indeed, it often seems that new projects of one…
A look at San Francisco Bay Area housing affordability trends over time and how they intersect with real estate market corrections: The 2008 San Francisco Bay Area real estate crash was not caused just by a local affordability crisis: It was triggered by macro-economic events in financial markets which affected real estate markets across the…
Interest rates have ticked up a little bit and are now just below 4%. The Q3 CAR Affordability Index just came out: Q2 to Q3, San Francisco remained the same, at a very low 10% Index reading; Marin ticked up from 17% to 19%; Sonoma went down from 25% to 24%; and Central Contra Costa…
Not so long ago, grave concern regarding the Chinese stock market decline and its effect on the U.S. economy filled the media and blogs. The words “bubble” and “crash” were used a few million times in regards to the U.S. stock market and the Bay Area real estate market. Wouldn’t it be interesting to revisit…
San Francisco led the Bay Area and the nation when its real estate recovery began in early 2012. Within the city itself, the more affluent neighborhoods led the rebound from the 2008 – 2011 recession and saw the highest rates of home price appreciation. That dynamic began to shift in 2014, when the more affordable…
The new S&P Case-Shiller Index for August was just released this week. The prices for homes in the upper third of prices – which dominate in most of San Francisco, central and southern Marin, and central Contra Costa – ticked down a tiny bit in summer, exactly as they did last summer. These short-term fluctuations…
The S&P Case-Shiller Index for the San Francisco Metro Area covers the house markets of 5 Bay Area counties, divided into 3 price tiers, each constituting one third of unit sales. Most of San Francisco’s, Marin’s and Central Contra Costa’s house sales are in the “high price tier”, so that is where we focus most…
The San Francisco Fall Antiques Show, now in its 34th year, is the oldest and most prestigious art and antiques fair on the West Coast. Held at Fort Mason each fall, the FAS presents 60 of the finest art and antiques dealers from around the world and is fully vetted by the vetting committee, organized…
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We’ve always known that seasonality plays a big role in real estate, but this Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) chart shows: 1) The lower-priced (under $2m) market has the most competitive supply and demand dynamic. 2) How much more seasonality affects the luxury home end of the market. Homes under $2m ebb and flow by…
Real estate markets are essentially determined by the balance – or imbalance, as is often the case – between buyer demand and seller supply of homes to purchase. Underlying that dynamic are economic, political and demographic factors – some local, some not – such as population growth, employment, new home construction, high-tech booms, consumer confidence,…
Below is a look at the past 30+ years of San Francisco Bay Area real estate boom and bust cycles. Financial-market cycles have been around for hundreds of years, all the way back to the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600’s. While future cycles will vary in their details, the causes, effects and trend lines…
